Value Bet Finder

The model's win probability for each side, built from probable starters and money-vs-ticket splits, compared against the book's vig-free price. Positive edge means you're getting a better number than the model says the side is worth.

16 of 16 games show a positive edge.

DEN @ SF

Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium

Best: SF -148 · +4.6% edge

Away

Denver Broncos +124

-4.6%

Model 38.2% · Fair price 42.8% · EV -0.14u

Home

San Francisco 49ers -148

+4.6%

Model 61.8% · Fair price 57.2% · EV +0.04u

Home favored by 3 on the spread

ARI @ NYG

Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium

Best: ARI -142 · +3.5% edge

Away

Arizona Cardinals -142

+3.5%

Model 59.9% · Fair price 56.3% · EV +0.02u

Home

New York Giants +120

-3.5%

Model 40.1% · Fair price 43.7% · EV -0.12u

Away favored by 2.5 on the spread

JAX @ CIN

Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium

Best: CIN -142 · +3.5% edge

Away

Jacksonville Jaguars +120

-3.5%

Model 40.1% · Fair price 43.7% · EV -0.12u

Home

Cincinnati Bengals -142

+3.5%

Model 59.9% · Fair price 56.3% · EV +0.02u

Home favored by 2.5 on the spread

ATL @ NO

Mon, Oct 5 · 7:15 PM CT · Caesars Superdome

Best: NO -142 · +3.5% edge

Away

Atlanta Falcons +120

-3.5%

Model 40.1% · Fair price 43.7% · EV -0.12u

Home

New Orleans Saints -142

+3.5%

Model 59.9% · Fair price 56.3% · EV +0.02u

Home favored by 2.5 on the spread

NE @ BUF

Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium

Best: BUF -298 · +3.6% edge

Away

New England Patriots +240

-3.6%

Model 24.6% · Fair price 28.2% · EV -0.16u

Home

Buffalo Bills -298

+3.6%

Model 75.4% · Fair price 71.8% · EV +0.01u

Home favored by 7 on the spread

NYJ @ CHI

Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Soldier Field

Best: CHI -175 · +2.7% edge

Away

New York Jets +145

-2.7%

Model 36.4% · Fair price 39.1% · EV -0.11u

Home

Chicago Bears -175

+2.7%

Model 63.6% · Fair price 60.9% · EV 0.00u

Home favored by 3.5 on the spread

DAL @ HOU

Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium

Best: HOU -162 · +2.4% edge

Away

Dallas Cowboys +136

-2.4%

Model 38.2% · Fair price 40.7% · EV -0.10u

Home

Houston Texans -162

+2.4%

Model 61.8% · Fair price 59.3% · EV -0.00u

Home favored by 3 on the spread

TEN @ BAL

Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium

Best: BAL -650 · +3.1% edge

Away

Tennessee Titans +470

-3.1%

Model 13.7% · Fair price 16.8% · EV -0.22u

Home

Baltimore Ravens -650

+3.1%

Model 86.3% · Fair price 83.2% · EV -0.00u

Home favored by 11.5 on the spread

LAR @ PHI

Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field

Best: LAR -180 · +2% edge

Away

Los Angeles Rams -180

+2%

Model 63.6% · Fair price 61.6% · EV -0.01u

Home

Philadelphia Eagles +150

-2%

Model 36.4% · Fair price 38.4% · EV -0.09u

Away favored by 3.5 on the spread

KC @ LV

Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium

Best: KC -218 · +1.5% edge

Away

Kansas City Chiefs -218

+1.5%

Model 67.3% · Fair price 65.7% · EV -0.02u

Home

Las Vegas Raiders +180

-1.5%

Model 32.7% · Fair price 34.3% · EV -0.08u

Away favored by 4.5 on the spread

GB @ TB

Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium

Best: GB -185 · +1.4% edge

Away

Green Bay Packers -185

+1.4%

Model 63.6% · Fair price 62.2% · EV -0.02u

Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +154

-1.4%

Model 36.4% · Fair price 37.8% · EV -0.08u

Away favored by 3.5 on the spread

DET @ CAR

Sun, Oct 4 · 7:20 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium

Best: DET -185 · +1.4% edge

Away

Detroit Lions -185

+1.4%

Model 63.6% · Fair price 62.2% · EV -0.02u

Home

Carolina Panthers +154

-1.4%

Model 36.4% · Fair price 37.8% · EV -0.08u

Away favored by 3.5 on the spread

MIA @ MIN

Sun, Oct 4 · 3:05 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium

Best: MIN -625 · +1.6% edge

Away

Miami Dolphins +455

-1.6%

Model 15.7% · Fair price 17.3% · EV -0.13u

Home

Minnesota Vikings -625

+1.6%

Model 84.3% · Fair price 82.7% · EV -0.02u

Home favored by 10.5 on the spread

TB @ DAL

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:15 PM CT · AT&T Stadium

Best: DAL -535 · +1.2% edge

Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400

-1.2%

Model 17.9% · Fair price 19.2% · EV -0.10u

Home

Dallas Cowboys -535

+1.2%

Model 82.1% · Fair price 80.8% · EV -0.03u

Home favored by 9.5 on the spread

LAC @ SEA

Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Lumen Field

Best: LAC +295 · +0.3% edge

Away

Los Angeles Chargers +295

+0.3%

Model 24.6% · Fair price 24.3% · EV -0.03u

Home

Seattle Seahawks -375

-0.3%

Model 75.4% · Fair price 75.7% · EV -0.04u

Home favored by 7 on the spread

IND @ WSH

Sun, Oct 4 · 8:30 AM CT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Best: IND -192 · +0.6% edge

Away

Indianapolis Colts -192

+0.6%

Model 63.6% · Fair price 63.1% · EV -0.03u

Home

Washington Commanders +160

-0.6%

Model 36.4% · Fair price 36.9% · EV -0.06u

Away favored by 3.5 on the spread